
Desarrollo territorial
Capacidad fiscal, catastro y tenencia de la tierra, desarrollo rural y adopción tecnológica, con la mayor parte de la evidencia anclada en Colombia.
Profesor de Economía del Desarrollo · Universidad EAFIT, Medellín
Medir lo que importa. Acompañar a quien decide.
Soy economista del desarrollo y me apasiona encontrar soluciones que de verdad cambien la vida de las comunidades. Las estudio con el rigor de la investigación —en los territorios, con datos y con la gente— y las convierto en conocimiento y en decisiones para empresas, gobiernos y fondos que invierten en el desarrollo.

Dos pilares, una pregunta

Capacidad fiscal, catastro y tenencia de la tierra, desarrollo rural y adopción tecnológica, con la mayor parte de la evidencia anclada en Colombia.

Evaluación de impacto con experimentos y cuasi-experimentos, métodos mixtos y retorno social de la inversión; y acompañar a empresas y fondos a entender los efectos sociales y ambientales reales de lo que hacen.
Geografía del trabajo
Cada punto marca un país o región cubierto por un proyecto, una evaluación o un trabajo de campo de la hoja de vida. Pase el cursor sobre un punto para ver los proyectos.
14 países
Colombia 38 proyectos
Fuera de Colombia
Arrastre el globo para girarlo; pase el cursor o toque un punto para ver sus proyectos.
Método, un caso
Los proyectos aplicados se diseñan para que los mismos datos respondan la pregunta de quien implementa y cumplan los estándares de la investigación: pre-registro, diseño contrafactual y documentos de trabajo públicos.
¿Qué cambia en el bienestar de hogares urbanos de bajos ingresos una mejora al interior de la vivienda, el programa Hogares Saludables de Cementos Argos?
Experimento aleatorizado por conglomerados, registrado en el AEA RCT Registry: 1.163 hogares en tres ciudades de Colombia.
Efectos sobre salud mental, salud infantil, empleo y endeudamiento; dos documentos de trabajo en SSRN.

Medir lo que importa en el territorio.
Environmental Research Communications 8(8), 085026
Among 806 smallholder households in Antioquia, Colombia, only 28% adopt at least one climate adaptation strategy despite widespread exposure to climate risk. We estimate two logistic regression models—one for overall adaptation and one for land-focused adaptation among landowners—with explanatory variables selected via group LASSO. Each additional unit on a six-item climate perception index raises the adaptation probability by 6.5% points in Model 1 and 6.9% points in Model 2. Education, land assets, and access to basic services further predict adoption. Households with better housing conditions—a proxy for wealth—are less likely to adopt land-based strategies, suggesting that wealthier households diversify livelihoods rather than adapt farming practices. Both models show adequate calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow ¡mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"¿ ¡mml:mrow¿ ¡mml:mi¿p¡/mml:mi¿ ¡mml:mo»¡/mml:mo¿ ¡mml:mn¿0.14¡/mml:mn¿ ¡/mml:mrow¿ ¡/mml:math¿ ) and good discriminatory power (AUC: 0.79 and 0.84). These patterns call for differentiated interventions: targeted information campaigns, financial products matched to adaptive investment scales, and support for the community institutions that diffuse adaptive knowledge.
Small Business Economics 66(2), 565–588
Given institutional incentives, is entrepreneurship always good for the economy? While the literature about its benefits for society is extensive, a salient lacuna exists regarding the negative side of entrepreneurship. This study, hence, explores how institutions condition destructive entrepreneurial activity, which is linked to the economic growth of Colombian regions. Institutional economics helps us understand the underlying relationships, which are tested through 3SLS, on a sample of 1122 municipalities in Colombia. We show that a negative effect of new coca crops (as destructive entrepreneurship) on regional economic growth exists, but it is conditioned by the institutional reinforcement and integral performance index (as formal institutions), as well as historical land conflict and hectares of land belonging to religious sects (as informal institutions). Other forms of (destructive) entrepreneurship are therefore envisioned and put in place for the continued development of the current literature and the management of public policy.
Economic History of Developing Regions 40(1), 49–79
This article provides new evidence for the effects of land inequality on human capital formation using the case of Colombia in the first half of the twentieth century. The paper studies this causal effect by exploiting a new historical database and creating a measure of land tenure based on subnational taxable land. The analysis applies multiple empirical strategies to demonstrate that low levels of land inequality are related to growth in literacy rates and better performance in variables such as enrolment and expenditure on education. Additionally, we analyse the relevance of the mechanism behind this relationship by identifying the effects of educational supply and demand through the heterogeneous impact on gender, rurality, and industrial employment. The results show that the demand side is prominent. The findings are in line with growing evidence of the perverse effects of land inequality on the formation of human capital in inegalitarian, poor, and rural societies.
International Journal of Public Health 69, 1606689
Objetives The adoption of vaccines was a crucial factor in overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic. However, vaccination rates between rural and urban areas varied greatly. In this paper, our objective is to understand the individual and institutional factors associated with the uptake of vaccines in remote rural areas in Colombia. Methods We interviewed a random sample of 800 households (1,592 individuals) in remote rural areas of Antioquia (Colombia) during February 2022 when vaccinations were available. Then, we use a linear probability model to explain the uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine. Results The results indicate that the probability of having at least the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine is positively associated with access to information, trust in police and army, and the perceived risk of contracting COVID-19. Trust in the church is negatively related to vaccination. Conclusion Institutions can play a critical role in the management of pandemics. Timely information on the risks associated with the disease and perceived riskiness are key factors that mobilize the population to take the COVID-19 vaccine.
International Interactions 49, 201–236
How are patterns of armed control and dispute by armed actors related to land concentration, land property rights, and distribution? We argue that armed actors affect land tenure by using different land transfer mechanisms to distribute the land, which reflects the dynamics of control and dispute during civil conflict. We test this argument by studying the case of Urabá, a region in northwestern Colombia, using a mixed-method strategy. First, using extensive qualitative fieldwork, we find that armed actors systematically applied different land transfer mechanisms in areas where they held control. Armed actors strategically changed from employing one land transfer mechanism to another in relation to the level of dispute, political and economic objectives, and alignment with the state, among others. In our fieldwork, we identify how these land transfer mechanisms led to patterns of territorial control and land tenure structure. We then analyze an original dataset of rural plot ownership in Urabá, based on official cadastral information, to empirically verify our qualitative findings. We estimate a village-level fixed effects model that shows that disputed territories and those under paramilitary control had larger plots, higher land inequality, and fewer land transfers. In contrast, territories with established control by left-wing insurgents exhibit a small landholder scheme. These results offer important insights into the relationship between civil armed conflict and land and the logic of rebel governance.
con Eduard Martínez-González y María del Pilar López-Uribe. Documentos CEDE 2026-37, Universidad de los Andes; en revisión, Journal of Public Economics (2026). hdl:1992/79361; ssrn:7133959
This paper estimates the effect of land property rights on illicit crop cultivation under weak institutions. We study Formalizar para Sustituir (FxS), a Colombian program that allocated land titles to farmers in coca-producing areas as part of the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC. Matching administrative titling records to annual high-resolution satellite imagery of coca fields at the 1 km × 1 km grid level, we compare titled grids to neighboring non-titled grids over 2011-2021 using a difference-indifferences design. Land titling reduces coca cultivation by 42-64% immediately, but the effect fades within two years. In the short term, titled households increase credit demand and investment in productive activities, and report incomes above what coca farming generates. These changes are consistent with property rights operating through the channels theory predicts, yet they are insufficient to sustain substitution on their own. The FxS×Placa-Huella interaction coefficient (ψ) implies an additional sustained reduction of 33-38% relative to the pre-treatment coca mean in grids that combine land titling with tertiary road construction, suggesting that connectivity to local markets is the binding constraint for long-run transition away from illicit crops. Roads alone, by contrast, are associated with more coca-a result consistent with prior evidence that infrastructure without institutional preconditions benefits illegal as much as legal activity.
con Gustavo García, Albert Saiz, Juliana Lalinde-Velásquez y Daniela Mejía-Tejada. Documento de trabajo SSRN (2025). ssrn:5387296
Are investments in urban slum housing connected to well-being? Previous research has focused on infrastructure, such as roads, sewage systems, and electricity, as well as title formalization. However, the impact of the highly-variable quality of dwellings is not fully understood, partly because gang violence has impeded fieldwork. Working with local organizations, we deployed teams of engineers into Colombian informal dwellings, allowing us to quantify their indoors investment deficits and to collect data from a novel household survey. We also trained an LLM using 11,000 photos taken by our field team, producing indoor and exterior AI quality ratings that are highly correlated with expert assessments. In turn, our investment metrics are important determinants of hedonic rental valuations. We find neighborhood violence to be associated with poor mental and physical health. Steep terrain and higher housing investments are associated with greater satisfaction with one's home. Contrary to concerns about crowding, unit size does not predict improved well-being. Surprisingly, only subjective assessments of housing satisfaction stand as significant and consistent predictors of positive family outcomes.
con Mónica Almonacid y Laura Peña. Documento de trabajo SSRN (2026). ssrn:6570319
Cadastral modernization-updating assessed property values after decades of stagnationcreates a structural dilemma for local governments: better data generates larger fiscal shocks that can trigger the taxpayer resistance that undoes the reform itself. This paper develops a decision-support framework that resolves this dilemma by optimizing property tax rate schedules to be simultaneously revenue-adequate, equity-preserving, and legally compliant under taxpayer-protection constraints. Applied to 929,703 properties across 88 municipalities in Antioquia, Colombia-where a 2024-2025 update nearly doubled the aggregate tax base-three findings emerge. First, the equity-revenue trade-off is far more favorable than current ordinances imply: the median municipality can increase revenue by 7.6% while reducing the residential tax burden. Second, current rate schedules are structurally obsolete and latently regressive, averaging 50 tariff combinations calibrated to 1990s nominal property values. Third, from a fiscal restructuring perspective, the simpler and cheaper land-value-only catch-up update mechanism (PND catch-up) is associated with comparable or higher fiscal restructuring potential than full cadastral modernization-a finding about rate-design 1 Muñoz-Mora, Almonacid & Peña The Property Tax Modernization Dilemma returns, not about the overall value of comprehensive modernization. The framework is replicable by any subnational government with access to digitized property-level cadastral records, retrievable rate ordinances, and administrative tax-liability data of adequate quality.
con Ana María Arcila-Agudelo, Harold Cardona-Trujillo et al. Documento de trabajo SSRN (2026). ssrn:6381888
People often use simple rules of thumb to decide what to eat, yet these “healthy eating” beliefs can drift away from everyday constraints. In rural Colombia, we explored how adults define healthy eating, what an “ideal day of eating” looks like in practice, and what barriers shape everyday food choices and eating routines. We conducted participatory co-design workshops with 41 adults (18–70 years old) across three rural subregions of Antioquia. Using visual food models, groups built ideal meals and menus, rated how closely their usual diets matched those ideals (1–5 scale), and discussed what helped or hindered alignment. We then used Colombian food composition data to benchmark the co-designed menus against national food-based dietary guidelines and recommended nutrient intake. Participants consistently framed healthy eating as “fresh” and “home-prepared.” Still, their ideals often left less room for vegetables and dairy than guidelines suggest and often exceeded recommended sodium limits. Self-ratings clustered around 2.5–3.5/5, indicating a perceived gap between intentions and everyday eating. Barriers were described less as a lack of knowledge and more as affordability, limited access and time, entrenched habits, and emotional strain. Pairing participatory elicitation of meal ideals with nutritional benchmarking helps to identify decision rules and real-world constraints that interventions can target to support healthier food choices in rural settings.
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